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Aguero, Salah, Kane – who will win the 2018/19 Golden Boot?

The Premier League season is beginning to enter its finale and discussions of who will win the league and who will be relegated are now in full flow. Yet one award which is by no means settled is the race for the Golden Boot and we are set for one of the tightest races in years.

Last years winner, Mohammed Salah, is right in contention to win the award again yet is a bit off his record-breaking season of last campaign. The Egyptian scored a remarkable 32 goals in 36 games last season and this time around sits on 17, one off the current leader, Sergio Aguero. So who is in contention to win the prestigious award this season and who do the bookmakers fancy? It is set to be a tight race that’s for sure…(stats provided by BBC and Sky Bet)

Sergio Aguero – 18 goals

  • Odds – 6/4
  • 73 shots
  • 51% on target
  • 107 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Fulham (A), Cardiff (H), Crystal Palace (A), Tottenham (H), Manchester United (A), Burnley (A), Leicester (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A)

Sergio Aguero has consistently been in the running for the Golden Boot for the past few seasons yet has not won the award since 2014-15 when he managed 26 goals – five ahead of his nearest rival that campaign, Harry Kane. This season was in fact his highest goal scoring season in the sky blue of Manchester City and he currently needs a goal a game to match this record this time around.

With two of the bottom three coming up next, the Argentine will feel confident that he can beat this record with both Fulham and Cardiff not renowned for their defensive abilities. The Citizens striker will also take comfort in his ability to score more than one goal in 90 minutes. Aguero has hit 11 Premier League hat-tricks during his career – with two of those coming in this campaign against Huddersfield and Chelsea respectively.

The Argentine possesses pure quality and his ability has not once been questioned, unlike others up for this prestigious award. He has hit 20 goals in his last four seasons and reaching that target I’m sure will not be a problem and with the title race being as close as it is, the Citizens main man will be pivotal in their quest for consecutive league titles. It is worth noting too that Aguero’s minutes per goal at 107 minutes is head and shoulders above his rivals with the nearest being Arsenal’s Aubameyang on 130 minutes per goal.

Mohamed Salah – 17 goals

  • Odds – 10/3
  • 80 shots
  • 64% on target
  • 156 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Tottenham (H), Southampton (A), Chelsea (H), Cardiff (A), Huddersfield (H), Newcastle (A), Wolves (H) 

The Egyptian is slightly disadvantaged in comparison to his closest rivals in the fact that he has played a game more and only has seven games remaining. Similar to Aguero, Salah will be crucial to Liverpool’s title race yet similar to the Argentine again it has been his strike partner, Sadio Mane, who has been outperforming him in recent weeks.

Salah has been somewhat not his usual self in recent weeks and has struggled to find the back of the net yet all you need to do is look at his outstanding campaign last season to realise he certainly has the ability to win this distinguished award once more. The striker is one goal short of 50 Premier League goals for Liverpool and has been frustratingly close to that target for a number of weeks now. However, I’m sure that once the Egyptian finds the back of the net once again, he will be back in a flow and will certainly be challenging to win the Golden Boot. Like Aguero, Salah still has two fixtures vs the bottom three and will be hopeful that Mane’s recent goalscoring antics are mirrored by him for the remainder of the season.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 17 goals

  • Odds – 6/1
  • 56 shots
  • 55% on target
  • 130 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Newcastle (H), Everton (A), Watford (A), Crystal Palace (H), Wolves (A), Leicester (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Burnley (A)

The Gabonese striker is in full flow during his first full Premier League campaign and after netting 10 goals in 13 games during his half of a debut season he has now managed 17 goals in 29. He has managed the fewest shots of all his closest rivals up for the Golden Boot yet his partnership with Frenchman Alexandre Lacazette has been quite impressive this season and has played a major part in Arsenal’s position in the table. He has at times been dropped as the latter has been preferred to play on his own up top yet Emery must surely partner the two together in Arsenal’s remaining fixtures if the Gunners have any hope of a Champions League spot – giving Aubameyang the chance of winning the award in his debut season for the Gunners.

Harry Kane – 17 goals

  • Odds – 7/2
  • 72 shots
  • 60% on target
  • 132 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Huddersfield (H), Manchester City (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), West Ham United (H), Bournemouth (A), Everton (H)

The England and Tottenham striker may have felt hard done by last season when due to Salah’s outright incredible campaign, Kane did not make it three years on the trot winning the illustrious Golden Boot. He is right in contention again but is arguably having his worse season goal scoring wise – this does have to take into account his time on the sidelines however where he missed a number of matches. In taking this into consideration, it is quite impressive he remains in position to win a third Golden Boot.

The fact that five of Tottenham’s eight remaining fixtures will take place in their brand new home may make Harry Kane the favourite in some peoples eyes and he will take satisfaction in this too yet Spurs do still have to play both Liverpool and Manchester City away from home and for Kane to score in these fixtures, he will have to be at his utmost best.

Sadio Mane – 17 goals

  • Odds – 9/1
  • 58 shots
  • 59% on target
  • 144 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Tottenham (H), Southampton (A), Chelsea (H), Cardiff (A), Huddersfield (H), Newcastle (A), Wolves (H)

If the Golden Boot did not include goals from the penalty spot than Liverpool’s Sadio Mane would in fact be leading the way. All 17 of the Senegalese internationals goals have come from open play this season and not from the penalty spot which is some feat. He has been paramount in Liverpool’s recent performances and his goals have been the main reason as to why Liverpool remain fighting on Premier League and Champions League fronts.

During 2019, Mane has netted nine goals whilst he has managed 11 in his last 11 games in all competitions and he is enjoying his best ever scoring season this time around. Last season he only managed 10 goals and was outperformed by Mo Salah yet this season, although Salah has netted the same amount of goals as his strike partner, the roles have almost reversed with many praising Mane as Liverpool’s main man.

Although he is not as fancied to pick up the Golden Boot, he will not let this bother him one bit and although he is slightly disadvantaged in the fact that he does not take penalty kicks, his 2019 form suggests he is more than capable of being the Premier Leagues highest goal scorer. It is fair to say that if Salah’s form does not improve soon then he may find himself edging closer to the award.

Raheem Sterling – 15 goals

  • Odds – 25/1
  • 42 shots
  • 76% on target
  • 143 minutes per goal

Fixtures remaining: Fulham (A), Cardiff (H), Crystal Palace (A), Tottenham (H), Manchester United (A), Burnley (A), Leicester (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A)

Although many will fancy Sterling’s teammate over himself to pick up the award, arguably Sterling is the most inform player currently plying his trade in the league and he comes into two fixtures against two of the leagues bottom three off the back of scoring a hat-trick for his country against the Czech Republic in qualifying for Euro 2020. The 24-year-old is only three goals off last seasons total and is set to break this record with eight games remaining.

The youngster has excelled this campaign under Pep Guardiola and is flourishing in his role in the Citizens side and to win the Golden Boot come May would be the perfect way to top off his year. The Englishman has been known to receive vast criticism from the press yet has consistently brushed this aside and is on his way to becoming one of the leagues greats.

Who wins?

For me, Sergio Aguero will win his second Golden Boot this campaign. To think the Argentine has only won the award once is insane and if Manchester City are to go on to win the title, he will without doubt be crucial and will certainly add a number of goals to help them on their way.

Whoever wins the award it will be appreciated that we may see one of the best races for the award ever and with six players separated by only three goals, the race is by no means over yet.

Eamon Kitching

21. Loughborough University Student developing my writing skills with 90MAAT. Leicester City fan still holding onto our 15/16 Premier League success.

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Premier League Table

# Team MP W D L P
1 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0
2 Arsenal 0 0 0 0 0
3 Aston Villa 0 0 0 0 0
4 Brighton & Hov… 0 0 0 0 0
5 Burnley 0 0 0 0 0
6 Chelsea 0 0 0 0 0
7 Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0
8 Everton 0 0 0 0 0
9 Leicester City 0 0 0 0 0
10 Liverpool 0 0 0 0 0
11 Manchester City 0 0 0 0 0
12 Manchester United 0 0 0 0 0
13 Newcastle United 0 0 0 0 0
14 Norwich City 0 0 0 0 0
15 Sheffield United 0 0 0 0 0
16 Southampton 0 0 0 0 0
17 Tottenham Hotspur 0 0 0 0 0
18 Watford 0 0 0 0 0
19 West Ham United 0 0 0 0 0
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 0 0 0 0

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