Burnley vs Crystal Palace
Date: 30/11/2019
K/O: 15:00
Venue: Turf Moor
Referee: Peter Bankes
After being promoted in consecutive seasons over 2013 and 2014, it is the London-based club who currently own the larger share of the spoils following a hattrick of victories over their last three meetings.
However, it is this weekend’s host’s, Burnley, who will be more favoured following successive 3-0 victories against stragglers West Ham and Watford, respectively. Crystal Palace will be striving to earn their own convincing victory as they enter this game without a victory in five, albeit, after five of the most daunting fixtures in the league.
Neither side has been particularly enthralling to watch throughout this season. Both teams are lodged, unfavourably, in the bottom four for both average possession (42.8% for Burnley vs 44.5% for Crystal Palace) and shots per game (11.1 vs 10.2) so far this season.
Despite this, Burnley, a once defensively endowed side, in previous years, has produced consistently in attack this season, scoring the sixth-most goals in the Premier League (20). Worryingly enough for their opponents this week, Burnley have scored 25% (5) of their goals from set-pieces and are particularly threatening on the counter-attack – both of which have proven to be Palace’s kryptonite in recent games.
The Eagles have conceded four of their last 10 goals from set-pieces, while 4 of the last 6 that Burnley have scored have been from dead-ball situations.
Led from the front by tantalising duo Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes, Burnley have found their ‘niché’ once more following a tepid 2018/19 season in which they failed to maintain their astonishing league form from the previous season.
A third of the way into this new campaign and the Clarets – led by Sean Dyche once more – have re-found their footing at the European rungs of the ladder, but in dissimilar fashion to their historical 2017/18 season.
A combination of factors may have led to their semi-capitulation throughout the Premier League while simultaneously combating Europa League duties last season.
While still trying to maintain their stingy defence, Dyche attempted to implement a more progressive offence in order to aid team development, however, this backfired and Burnley found themselves void of an identity. They conceded 68 goals compared to just 39 the season before, while only scoring 9 more throughout the 38 games.
Burnley have always been dominant from set-pieces under Dyche. Last season they scored the fourth most set-piece goals (14) and they’re on track for similar numbers with 5 so far this season, ranking them equal 5th. Although they weren’t as clinical in the season before that – scoring just 8 goals – they were equal sixth for shots from set-pieces.
However, this season, they’ve added a new arrow to their sheath and are converting more freely from open play. They’re averaging more shots and are on track to score more goals from open play compared to both of the last two seasons. This new offensive class has been enough to offset their higher disdain for defensive duties in pursuit of a more sustainable output – conceding 18 goals, double the amount at this point in their 2017/18 campaign.
On the contrary, Palace are averaging a lower shots per game from set-pieces (4 in 2017/18, 3.5 in 2018/19 and 3.1 this season), open play (7.9; 8.7 and 6.5, respectively) and overall this season (12.5; 13 and 10.2, respectively), compared to the last two. This has uncoincidentally coincided with Wilfried Zaha’s lowest average returns in key passes and shots, but oddly enough – his highest average return in successful dribbles per game, over the last three seasons.
Not to single out Zaha, but Palace are also averaging their lowest number of key passes per game (7.2) compared to the previous two seasons (8.8 in 2017/18 and 9.4 in 2018/19) in which Roy Hodgson has been – mostly – in charge. Although, you most likely won’t meet a Palace fan that will need statistics to enforce the fact that their team is playing more, and more like the Burnley of 2017/18, but to less effect.
It’s not all gloomy for Palace fans. Before their horror five-fixture run over these last five weeks, the Eagles sat sixth on the table, meaning they were getting results in the games they were expected to. After this fixture at Turf Moor, the Eagles don’t face a team in the current top 10 in an 8-match stretch spanning until game-week 22 where they play Arsenal.
This is more than just a little consolation Palace who sit just four points off the leaders of the peloton (Wolves currently 5th with 19 points) despite having won just one point from their previous five games.
Something that should also instil a fair bit of confidence into Palace fans, is that they have won two of the four fixtures at Turf Moor between these two sides in the Premier League with an overall positive goal difference. Thus, this could definitely be a game that the Eagles will look to win and use as a catalyst for good form for the next eight fixtures following.
If Palace can defy their aforementioned unflattering, underlying statistics, turn their form around and get a result against a well-placed, on-form Burnley side. Then, Hodgson may look to steer this side to displace this week’s foe, before the start of game-week 22 and position themselves nicely to battle it out for the European places come the end of the season.
Team News
Burnley
No fresh injuries for Burnley, following their 3-0 rout of Watford the previous week. However, Ashley Westwood picked up his fifth yellow card of the season against the Hornets last week and is, therefore, automatically suspended for one Premier League fixture – this week’s game against Palace.
In his place, we could potentially see the debut of Chelsea-loanee, Danny Drinkwater, who successfully made it through 90 minutes with the under-23’s over the previous week.
Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson has been declared fit to play – be it from the bench or at the starting whistle – after recovering from an injury sustained over the international break.
Matej Vydra is also available, should he be required but with the high form of Barnes and Wood and impressive performances of Jay Rodriguez, he may not even appear on the bench for the first team.
Crystal Palace
The team’s worst nightmare has been made a reality – specialist right-back, Joel Ward has been confirmed as unavailable for this game-week and for “some weeks” according to Roy Hodgson. Centre-back, Martin Kelly, is the most suitable replacement, having played full-back on both sides of the pitch during his tenure at Palace.
Predicted Starting XIs
Burnley (4-4-2): Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Pieters; Guðmundsson, Hendrick, Cork, McNeil; Barnes, Wood
Crystal Palace (4-3-3): Guaita; Kelly, Tomkins, Cahill, van Aanholt; McArthur, Milivojevic, Kouyaté; Townsend, Ayew, Zaha
Prediction: Burnley 2-2 Crystal Palace
Burnley have scored in each of their four home Premier League fixtures against Palace, who have scored at least two goals in three of the four matches at Turf Moor. The hosts are on a scoring-high – and also on form – while the visitors will look to get back into goalscoring ways; it wouldn’t be a surprise if all three of Wood, Barnes and Zaha are on the scoresheet.
