Keep the faith: these stats suggest Burnley will turn their current slide around – opinion
Burnley's English manager Sean Dyche gestures at the end of the English Premier League football match between Burnley and Manchester United at Turf Moor in Burnley, north west England on December 28, 2019. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)
Sean Dyche’s Burnley side have been quietly slipping down the Premier League table in recent weeks, masked only by strugglers Norwich City and A.F.C Bournemouth’s poorer form. The Clarets have just three wins to their name in the past ten games and with no draws and seven defeats which makes for grim reading for a side who were once renowned for being so well drilled defensively. Burnley currently sit in 15th with a three-point cushion to the relegation zone, but their results could be about to turn around.
So far this season the Clarets have found the back of the net 24 times in 22 Premier League matches, thanks primarily due to 20 goals from Chris Wood, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez. The latter two of that trio both missed the weekend’s hammering against Chelsea but should be fit to return soon, possibly in their next match against Leicester City.
Furthermore, Burnley have underscored based on their expected goals so far this season, and it suggests that Dyche’s side should have found the back of the net 3.66 times more often than they have done so far this term.
Meanwhile, Burnley’s expected goals conceded is 6.56 fewer than the actual total Nick Pope has let past him. These stats indicate that if Burnley regress to their mean, in the near future they should stop conceding as many goals as 37 they have in the Premier League so far. No other side in the bottom nine has been expected to concede as few as Burnley’s 30.44, which indicates they have one of the best back lines in the lower half of the division – the Clarets are just currently out of form.
The best indicator that Burnley will be able to turn their slide around and climb back up the Premier League table though is their expected points. Based on their expected goals and expected goals against, Dyche’s side should sit on 28.65 points after 22 matches, were they to have accumulated that total Burnley would be sitting in the top half of the Premier League table.
All of the metrics indicate that Dyche should not be overly concerned as eventually Burnley will address their slide and start picking up points again regularly.