Leicester City v Brighton
Date: 13/12/2020
K/O: 19.15
Venue: King Power Stadium
Referee: Martin Atkinson
TV: Sky Sports
Leicester and Brighton take to the King Power Stadium stage for the final game of the week on Sunday night for a game which, though it looks unassuming on the surface, could prove to be something of an early Christmas cracker. Both teams’ reliance on possession play might turn this fixture into a desperate battle to keep hold of the ball, and it could quickly turn scrappy if each side is fighting to get possession back when they lose it. You might not expect it, but this game might be packed with as much quality and excitement as your regular Liverpool – City clash.
Got going again?
Leicester City’s last gasp winner against Sheffield United was exactly what Leicester needed to propel them out of a bit of a rough patch. When Jamie Vardy converted on what was maybe his only chance in the game, then reeled away and lay ruin to the Bramall lane corner flag, Brendan Rodgers must have had a weight lifted from his shoulders. James Maddison’s post-match interview was particularly revelatory as the midfielder ,who assisted the goal, spoke about how greatly the Foxes had been celebrating the 90th minute win.
But Maddison’s other comments, particularly on their recent streak, were more telling. Maddison said that the team weren’t feeling “relief” after the win for the end of their recent poor streak. “You go through phases”, he said, “there will be times where you go without a win, it’ll happen again at the club – that’s football…that’s how it goes.” They were mature words, and they reflect well both on Maddison, but on the squad as a whole and Rodgers too. Leicester were set back by a poor run of form that started after Christmas and eventually scuppered their Champions League hopes, but there seems to be a new maturity and confidence around Leicester’s squad now – one that can allow them to push through bad streaks of form that have been woeful for the club in the past.
Leicester proved this to be right when they stepped out on Thursday evening and comfortably dispatched AEK Athens to win their Europa League group and put them amongst the ‘seeded’ teams for the Europa League knockout stages. These two wins look to be, although subtle, massively important for Leicester. Both of them proved that Leicester have what it takes to be a consistent European side and emplaced within the top six, if not the top five, of the Premier League.
Lots of expected goals…but little on the scoresheet
Brighton are becoming infamous at scoring expected goals, but not actually putting the ball in the net. Expected goals are calculated by the number of chances one team makes that would be usually scored in the Premier League, and while Graham Potter’s side often dominate the ‘xG’ in their games they often come out with nothing to show for it. For instance, when the Seagulls hosted Southampton on Monday, they were given an expected goal rating of around 2. Southampton, on the other hand, had an expected goal rating of only 1.35. If things had played out in the fashion the stats suggest, Brighton would have won 2-1 – yet the score was reversed, and the Saints won by the same scoreline.
This story is becoming a familiar one for Brighton fans; in fact, the seagulls have lost a whopping 15 points in games where their ‘xG’ was higher than their opponent but in which they failed to win. If the table was decided on expected goals alone Brighton would be ninth, above Manchester United and recent opponents Southampton. But the current reality is that they sit way down in sixteenth, and have scored two goals less than their stats suggest they should. These two goals could have easily been an additional six points, a number which would lift them all the way up to eleventh. While two goals might not seem like a great amount, it is these small margins that decide seasons in the Premier League.
Yet finding a culprit for these strange ‘xG‘ fortunes is not difficult, as these stats are also calculated on a per-player basis. These specific statistics quickly point out that, of the Brighton goalscorers, Neal Maupay’s poor form in front of goal is holding them back. Maupay, who has scored four goals, has an expected goal stat of over 6. The Frenchman should have scored two more goals than he has so far, the two goals that could have seen Brighton bounced up almost six places in the League. Graham Potter will no doubt be aware of this – though whether he can change Maupay’s goalscoring fortunes remains to be seen. We may just find out this weekend.
Team News
James Maddison has recovered from a slight calf problem in the week and will be ready and available for action on Sunday. The remainder of Leicester’s injury list remain out, although Timothy Castagne is set for a return in the midweek game. Ricardo Pereira, Caglar Soyuncu and Daniel Amartey will not be seen for a few weeks yet.
Adam Lallana will miss the Leicester game with a groin injury, but Davy Propper and Alexis Mac Allister are both looking good and could feature (though they are unlikely to start). Jose Izquierdo, however, is not expected to be available.
Expected Starting XIs.
Leicester City (3-4-3): Schmeichel; Fuchs, Evans, Fofana; Justin, Tielemans, Mendy, Albrighton; Maddison, Vardy, Perez.
Brighton (3-4-1-2): Matty Ryan; Webster, Dunk, Veltman; March, Bissouma, White, Lamptey; Gross; Maupay, Welbeck.
Score Prediction: Leicester 2-0 Brighton
Leicester should have too much for Brighton, especially after coming back into a bit of form, and Graham Potter might look to reserve some energy and players for more significant fixtures against Fulham and Sheffield United next week.
