Southampton vs Sheffield United
Date: 13/12/2020
K/O: 12:00
Venue: St Mary’s Stadium
Referee: Andy Madley
TV: Sky Sports Main Event
There will be 4,000 fans boisterously welcoming the only winless Premier League side, Sheffield United, to St Mary’s Stadium.
After 12 games, Chris Wilder has still tallied 0 wins for the 2020/21 league campaign. Their total of one point – a draw against fellow relegation candidates Fulham – after 12 games is the lowest in Premier League history. Expectations were high following the barnstorming start the newly promoted team had last season. However, considering their budget, the size of the club, and stature in the league, a fight for survival seems only realistic.
Sheffield United have scored the least goals and conceded the equal-third most. Yet there is still hope despite a near redundant 12 games, while explanations can be given for their severe regression defensively.
Currently, they are the most underperforming side offensively – scoring six less goals than their expected goal (xG) tally of 11 for the season according to fbref.com. Southampton, on the other end of the spectrum, are outperforming their xG tally by 9.2 – an astronomical difference. This is quite unlike Southampton who, last season, scored fewer goals than their xG tally while Sheffield United have remained consistent underperformers – scoring a scarily similar 5.5 goals less than expected.
Does this mean we could soon see the teams exchange form, with Southampton’s taking a turn for the worse?
Dean Henderson’s departure was a significant one. The goalkeeper expressing his desire to fight for the starting goalkeeper slot at Manchester United after a vastly successful loan spell with Sheffield United. Aaron Ramsdale, his replacement, made the third most saves last season for Bournemouth, inspiring an £18.5 million transfer.
Ramsdale has helped the Blades conceded only what has been expected of them – 18 from an xG against (xGA) of 17.5, which is not bad at all. However, merely acclimating to the mean is not what we became accustomed to with Sheffield United last season. They conceded just 39 goals from roughly 48 xG throughout the 2019/20 campaign which, over a full season, indicates a highly functioning defence.
Whilst Ramsdale is performing adequately, Wilder has still been forced to make do with virtually a completely different backline. Along with the continued absence of Jack O’Connell who, together with Henderson and the currently injured Enda Stevens, played 92.6% of all minutes last season. Can you imagine taking out Nemanja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand and Edwin van der Sar from that Manchester United team at their peak? The impact would be season-defining. As it is for Sheffield United here.
The hope for the travelling side, which is becoming more of a necessity as the season progresses, is that they can buck this offensive underperformance to help complement their currently functioning defence.
This will be a tricky task. Danny Ings scored in his first game back from injury, albeit a highly contentious 90th-minute penalty. While Che Adams has continued his end of season form from the last campaign, collecting seven goals and goals assists from his last 16 league appearances. James Ward-Prowse’s dead-ball attributes have been a major factor for Southampton’s fast start where they even briefly occupied top spot in the league.
Ward-Prowse has seen three free-kicks end up in the back of the net, from an xG total of just 0.6, contributing to him having the equal third number of goals per shot with 0.4, behind Kurt Zouma and Son Heung-Min. While three of his corners have been turned into goals, contributing to the Saints having scored the most goals from set-pieces (7) despite having taken the lowest number of corners in the league.
Of course, dubious penalty decisions, miraculous free kicks and lucky deflections won’t always be around to save Southampton. Sheffield United, despite being last, have not been the worst-performing team in the league. In fact, their xG total against West Brom just two weeks ago was the sixth-highest total achieved by a team in a single game this season.
Eventually, and what is most common, teams begin to normalise according to the statistics. Will this finally be the week that Sheffield United kickstart their season in front of fans for the first time this season?
Team News
Southampton
Following the return of Danny Ings last week, Ralph Hasenhüttl has a full squad to choose from. A delightful headache for a team in good stead.
Sheffield United
Ethan Ampadu, Stevens, Lys Mousset and Jack O’Connell remain unavailable.
Predicted Starting XIs
Southampton (4-2-2-2): McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Ward-Prowse, Romeu; Armstrong, Walcott; Ings, Adams
Sheffield United (3-5-2): Ramsdale; Basham, Egan, Bryan; Baldock, Lundstram, Berge, Fleck, Lowe; McBurnie, Burke
Score Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Sheffield United
Statistically, Southampton have overperformed this season, but this is not to detract from their attractive and intense football which has reaped results consistently since December last year. Sheffield United have been edging ever so close to that elusive victory which will hopefully ignite their Premier League season before it’s too late. All they need is one or two moments of fortune.
