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Stick or twist? How City’s midfield transfer activity will impact Phil Foden

How do you improve a team that wins a domestic treble, including a second successive Premier League title won with a points haul only bettered by themselves a year prior? Does such a team need improvements? It is easy to look at the success of last season and say no, but football does not work like that.

It is entirely possible of course (just look at Spurs last season) that City could maintain their level of last season without any recruits, however, when you look deeper into the mechanics of the current squad, you can see that the Citizens are approaching a significant transitional period, particularly in midfield.

David Silva – the longest-serving member of City’s squad following Vincent Kompany’s departure – announced this week that he would leave the club when his contract expires at the end of the coming season.

Fernandinho, though quiet in media circles, appears all but certain to join him, with the Brazilian’s current deal set to expire on the same day. Alongside Silva and Fernandinho, City’s midfield roster currently also includes Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Fabian Delph and Phil Foden, while Bernardo Silva’s versatility has meant he has played in midfield as often as he has in attack.

The cohort listed above is enviable for any club, and indicative of a team that is proving almost impossible to stop. But David Silva and Fernandinho are not the only ones whose contracts expire at the end of next season. Fabian Delph and Ilkay Gundogan are also out of contract next June, and both are courting interest from other clubs this summer.

Rumours around Delph remain sparse, though The Sun have claimed in recent weeks that the Englishman is on the radar of several Premier League clubs, as well as Turkish side Galatasaray. Gundogan meanwhile appears keen to extend his stay and sign a new deal, despite interest from Inter Milan.

So far this summer City have not been linked with many potential arrivals, though one which appears to be inching ever closer is a move for 23-year-old Spanish midfielder Rodri. It is believed Pep Guardiola views Rodri as the ultimate successor to Fernandinho in City’s midfield.

But this deal would bring complexity to City, with a saturated complement of quality midfielders all seeking game time for various reasons. Also, it was confirmed in March that the club was being investigated by UEFA for potential violations of Financial Fair Play regulations. Such investigations will surely temper City’s hierarchy’s ambitions of splashing the cash to ensure a swift and seamless changeover of their waning midfield.

Long story short, if Rodri arrives, someone will likely leave, though not necessarily in midfield. While Leroy Sane has been linked with a move to Bayern, City are hopeful of keeping the young German and instead favour the departure of at least one of their midfielders, as well as Brazilian full-back, Danilo.

What does this mean for Phil Foden? Pep Guardiola has spoken highly of the 19-year-old since City’s preseason tour of the USA in 2017, and there is no suggestion that Foden will leave the club having signed a contract until 2024 last December.

But first team action is what Foden wants and needs, but until recently has not been getting. The young Englishman has made 36 competitive appearances for City, mostly from the bench, and has scored seven goals. He has every right to expect more in 2019/20.

Foden’s £30,000 per week wages are dwarfed by his more experienced counterparts, and the finances of City’s midfield wage bill provide an intriguing undertone as Pep Guardiola aims to improve his side.

Though Rodri’s prospective wage at City cannot be guessed with any certainty at this stage, it is likely it will also be significantly higher than Foden’s.

Let us consider once again the midfielders currently employed by City, alongside their age, weekly wage and the expiry date of their contract (wage source: Total Sportek, age correct as of 28.06.19):

David Silva – 33 – £220,000 – 30.06.20
Fabian Delph – 29 – £90,000 – 30.06.20
Fernandinho – 34 – £150,000 – 30.06.20
Ilkay Gundogan – 28 – £120,000 – 30.06.20
Kevin De Bruyne – 28 – £350,000 – 30.06.2023
Phil Foden – 19 – £30,000 – 30.06.24

If Rodri arrives as expected, current figures suggest he will command a weekly wage of at least £100,000.

Of the six names above (not to mention Bernardo Silva and John Stones, who each deputised in midfield on occasion), only Fabian Delph played less than Phil Foden. If we add Rodri into the mix, Foden’s time on the pitch may yet be stifled further.

It could be argued that Phil Foden was fortunate to get as many minutes as he did, with Fernandinho and Kevin De Bruyne’s injury problems opening the door to the first team further than it would’ve been without such troubles.

Ilkay Gundogan more often than not took up the mantle of Fernandinho’s deeper role when the Brazilian was unavailable last term, a role that will not be afforded to him should Rodri join. Though many may speculate that Rodri’s arrival may allow Fernandinho to move on this summer, from a footballing point of view that would not make sense. Pep Guardiola will hope to give Rodri the time to settle into life in England, and learn from the departing Brazilian as he plays his final campaign in Manchester.

The signing of Rodri could very feasibly signal the end for Gundogan though, depending on two factors. The first of these factors is a transfer fee, the size of which can only be afforded by the richest clubs in the World. City value Gundogan at around £40 million. If a club came in with that amount of money, Pep Guardiola’s head will be turned.

The second of these factors is Phil Foden. The money may turn Guardiola’s head, but his opinion of Phil Foden will be decisive in whether he looks back once again. With Rodri and Fernandinho vying for the deeper role, Gundogan would be in direct competition with Foden, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Fabian Delph for the other two positions in City’s regular 4-3-3 setup.

Including Gundogan, three of those five names are out of contract next summer. Of the other two, De Bruyne is not for sale while Delph will remain bottom of the pile when it comes to selection, and will surely play the least minutes if he stays.

With David Silva confirmed to be leaving next summer (and hence, will play this season) and Fabian Delph not expected to sign an extension, Manchester City and Ilkay Gundogan each face a dilemma ahead of the start of 2019/20.

Gundogan is by far the most likely to extend his stay in Manchester, though we do not know his wage demands if he has indeed made any.

If City were to play the season with the group they currently have; a more than talented crop of midfielders that should see them challenging for honours once again, this would leave them three midfielders down next season. Assuming Delph won’t play often if he stays, they would be two regular first-teamers down.

City would likely of course still have Bernardo Silva to deputise if required, in which case the decision to allow the out of contract midfielders to leave could be easier than it seems.

In the eventuality that all four out of contract players leave, City will surely sign at least one more midfielder. If the club has already decided that they will allow all four to leave next season (or for argument’s sake, allow Silva, Fernandinho and Gundogan to leave next summer and sell Fabian Delph this summer), they will try and sign that replacement midfielder now.

If City are able to make such a signing within FFP rules, it makes sense from a business standpoint whether they bring in money from sales or not, since other clubs will likely up their asking prices when City are in more desperate need of a replacement in January or next summer.

If City were to sign another midfielder, it would likely be an expensive prospect, and would further damage Phil Foden’s chances of maximising his game time.

A slightly different possible scenario is that Silva, Fernandinho and Delph are allowed to leave, but the club enter negotiations with Gundogan during the season. This situation would be the worst for Phil Foden, and here’s why.

He is not as good as Kevin De Bruyne, that is a fact. Whether he will become as good or better remains to be seen, but as of now he is not on the same level. You could also very easily argue the same with respect to David Silva and Ilkay Gundogan.

He will not keep De Bruyne out of the side if the Belgian is fit, that is clear. Pep Guardiola will also seek to maximise the output of David Silva, similarly to how he managed Vincent Kompany at the end of last season. But crucially, if City begin the next season with Ilkay Gundogan still not tied down beyond next summer, but wanting him to stay, they also have a huge incentive to play him as much as possible.

Though Foden needs game time to continue to improve as a young professional, he remains the most likely to be left out, especially when you consider that those four names (plus Fabian Delph) will be vying for only two places alongside Fernandinho or Rodri.

What Foden needs is minutes, what City needs is a clear, long term strategy for their midfield. If both of these align in 2019/20, Phil Foden could flourish just in time for Euro 2020.

Sam Hanys

A miserable Ipswich Town fan.

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