Crystal Palace have not been frequent goal scorers in the Premier League this season; however, Roy Hodgson’s side have consistently done what is required of them to collect Premier League points. Currently, they reside in 13th spot, nine points clear of the drop on 33 with 11 matches remaining, as per the BBC. However, their method of accumulating victories in the top-flight has been entirely unsustainable, and they could be found out before the end of the season.
No side in the top-flight has created fewer big chances than the Eagles’ 21, and it is astonishing they have been able to score 24 goals from such a lack of creativity. Jordan Ayew is their top scorer on six goals, while no other Crystal Palace player has found the back of the net on more than three occasions, as per WhoScored. Additionally, Wilfred Zaha has been Hodgson’s most potent creative threat, yet he has a meagre three assist in the top-flight, while James McArthur is their only other player to have created more than one goal, via WhoScored. Clearly, there is an issue not only with finishing but creativity as well, leading to Crystal Palace scoring the joint fewest Premier League goals this term.
Further worries for fans should come via the fact that Palace have only outscored their expected goals by 0.85 this season, which epitomises just how few chances they are creating and the poor quality of those opportunities. Moreover, Hodgson’s side have outperformed their expected goals conceded by 9.05, having let in 32, though the Understat model suggests that 41.05 goals should have found the back of the net. Those figures should concern Hodgson as they clearly identify Crystal Palace are overperforming in defence and may eventually revert to the mean and start to leak goals more frequently.
Though the most worrying statistic of them all is that Crystal Palace should have accumulated 27.22 points according to Understat’s model, 5.78 fewer than they currently have at this moment in time. It is overwhelming proof that the Eagles are in more significant trouble than their league position suggests. The win against Newcastle, their first in eight Premier League games, was merely papering over the cracks, which could swallow the club whole before the end of the season.
