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West Ham United vs Crystal Palace: 05/10/2019 – match preview and predicted starting XIs

West Ham United vs Crystal Palace

Date: 05/10/2019

K/O: 17:30

Venue: London Stadium

TV: Sky Sports Main Event 

Referee: Micheal Oliver

Together, these two teams have lost a total of one game from their last 11 combined league apperances as this Saturday’s evening fixture at the London Stadium promises intrigue in a contest between two teams near the top of their form.

Following a pair of pricey transfer windows and the acquisition of a Premier League-winning manager, last season’s liabilities have become accounted for by West Ham.

The Hammers have conceded just four goals since their opening weekend humbling at the mercy of reigning champions Manchester City. No other team has conceded less during this period, while Liverpool are the only other team to have conceded as little as four during this six game-week stretch.

Coincidentally, West Ham are actually giving their opponents the leisure of higher quality chances, compared to last season. During the 2018/19 campaign, their opponents took 64% of their shots within the 18-yard-box compared to 72% this season. These shots, specifically from inside the box, produced an expected goal per game average of 1.11 last season compared to 1.89 in their opening seven game-weeks this season, potentially hinting that West Ham are overperforming defensively, thus far.

Despite this, West Ham have ‘defied the odds’ to find themselves in fifth place (even though they are equal on goal difference with fourth place, but they have scored less goals meaning they have been demoted to fifth). However, any fan of sport knows that during the 90 minutes on the pitch the stats become incognito. The Hammers have well and truly deserved their current standing and things are scarily coming together in their quest for a European berth.

Issa Diop has been an outstandingly consistent performer in defence, making his £22m transfer fee look miniscule (especially in today’s football economy) since joining West Ham. Partnering up with Angelo Ogbonna in the centre of defence, in their games against Norwich and Manchester United, the pair have allowed Teemu Pukki and Marcus Rashford – strikers who are generally the focal point of their team’s attack – a measly one and three touches in their box, respectively.

Diop’s individual worth is duly highlighted by the fact that West Ham have lost four and drawn just one game from the five that he has missed since the start of last season.

This solidarity in defence has been compounded by the profound impact that 34-year-old, Lukasz Fabianski, had in goal at the London Stadium last season. He conceded 14 goals less than the average goalkeeper would have been expected to last season.

Also, in the improved four-man defence, Ryan Fredericks has provided a more efficient option at right-back this season. As a more athletic, box-to-box defender (in comparison to Pablo Zabaleta last season), Fredericks has been able to consistently penetrate the trenches of the opposition penalty box.

Acquired on a free transfer, the 26-year-old right-back has made the fourth most passes into the opposition box (12) out of any player in the league this season. This is only behind Mohammed Salah (18) with Jamie Vardy (13) in third, while this week’s potential opponent, Wilfried Zaha (17), has the second most.

Up-front, the record signing, Sébastian Haller is not only providing an attacking threat but he’s making sure the opposition defenders don’t have any time off either, maintaining the level of pressure around the pitch.

Averaging 20.11 pressures per 90 minutes (putting him in the upper echelon of Europe’s top 5 leagues) and making more open play passes per 90 minutes than any other pure striker in the league. Haller is the ultimate team player and, in spite of that, he’s still managed three crafty goals this season.

The Frenchman is the perfect foil for a now-fit and mesmerising Andriy Yarmolenko, as well as Felipe Anderson who has created the equal-third most chances from open play of any player outside of the ‘top six’ teams, so far.

However, the attacking trio – and West Ham in general – will find it tough going against a historically well-travelled Crystal Palace. Despite starting poorly on the road this season, Palace are ranked sixth for the most points collected away from home since the start of last season.

They currently find themselves in ninth spot, with only a freak 95th-minute equaliser courtesy of Diogo Jota of Wolverhampton Wolves two game-weeks ago, keeping them out of the top five.

Travelling to Sheffield United and Tottenham since the start of the season, Palace completed two of, if not, their worst performances since they bucked their infamous seven-game losing streak to start the 2017/18 season. They have still managed to keep the equal-most clean sheets (three, on par with West Ham), conceding the equal-third least amount of goals (with more than half coming in a rabid 4-0 loss to Tottenham) since the start of the season.

Joel Ward has been a major catalyst behind Palace’s sustained calcification at the back. He has the highest tackle success rate (85%) of any player outside the ‘top 6’ so far this season, taking on expertly from his former successor, and now predecessor, Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Alongside him, Premier League veteran Gary Cahill has not put a foot wrong to help spur the club forward.

Yet again, however, it has been Palace’s inability to finish their good work in front of goal which has been their demise this season. A tally of six goals from their seven league games this season is a bipolar return in comparison to their astute defending, as they are equally ranked the third-worst side for goals this season.

This defies the fact that the position of their shots has been – statistically – better than any other team, with 65% of their shots coming from within the 18-yard box, the highest percentage in the league. However, the volume of their shots is lacking, which is the main reason behind their downfall thus far.

A testament to this is the fact that Leicester City (currently in third place on the ladder) have scored seven more goals than Palace, despite averaging no more shots per game (equal on 11.1 each) or shots on target per game (again, both teams equal on 3.9 each).

Talisman, Wilfried Zaha, has given his best for the club whose academy he graduated from. Previously mentioned, Zaha has played the second-most passes into the box of any player this season. He has also attempted (6.9) and completed (4.6) the most dribbles per game of any player this season. He and his teammates have struggled in front of goal, which is the reason why Palace are no higher up the Premier League – the fault is all their own.

In their two draws so far this campaign – against Everton in game-week one and Wolves in game-week six – Palace missed two one-on-one opportunities in both games. Had they converted these opportunities, this would have placed them in third spot and they still would have had the sixth-worst goal tally for the season. Such are the margins of the Premier League.

Team News

West Ham United

In-form shot-stopper – and one of the major reasons behind West Ham’s impressive start to the season – Lukasz Fabianski has been ruled out for three months, with much-maligned reserve keeper, Roberto, set to take the mantle in between the sticks during his absence.

Michail Antonio and Winston Reid remain on the injury list, while the ever-creative, Manuel Lanzini, may return to the starting line-up after returning from injury last weekend.

Crystal Palace

Club captain Luka Milivojevic has committed the most fouls this season and has subsequently picked up five yellow cards already, this means he is automatically suspended for one game and will, thus, miss this weekend’s London Derby.

Palace have no like-for-like replacement for Milivojevic, whose ability to pick out a long pass and combined defensive stability is unmatched throughout the club’s midfield. Hodgson is stereotypically not a risk-taker, especially away from home. Thus, it would be unwise to hypothesise that a creative midfielder, such as Max Meyer or Victor Camarasa, would be awarded a start.

James McCarthy – having made five appearances off the bench this season – is a pure defensive midfielder who could come in, but it would make Palace’s midfield rather one-dimensional and fairly static.

The other option is to revert fullback-turned-midfielder-turned-winger, Jeffrey Schlupp, to a midfielder once more and start Palace’s most recent goalscorer, Andros Townsend, for the first time since game-week five on the right-wing.

A slight hamstring strain looks likely to keep Mamadou Sakho from making an appearance for the second consecutive week, but Martin Kelly and Gary Cahill have been astute in covering his absence.

Predicted Starting XIs

West Ham (4-2-3-1): Roberto; Fredericks, Diop, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Noble, Rice; Yarmolenko, Lanzini, Anderson; Haller

Crystal Palace (4-3-3): Guaita; Ward, Cahill, Kelly, van Aanholt; McArthur, Kouyaté, Schlupp; Townsend, Ayew, Zaha

Score Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Crystal Palace

West Ham have shown mature consistency since their blip in game-week one, while Crystal Palace – although defensively elite apart from their fixture against Tottenham – have been weak in front of goal and erratic on their travels, but their threat on the counter can not be denied.

A bit of drama and a winner in the last 15 minutes of the game is not impossible in any London Derby.

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