Will Newcastle United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town survive their returns and first visits to the Premier League? 90MAAT’s Sam Hanys provides an insight to the statistics and likelihood of recently promoted teams surviving their first season.
Newly promoted Newcastle United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town each stand a 55% chance of staying up, our statistics show.
Fans will be hoping their sides can follow the odds and retain their top tier status; as Newcastle aim to return to the top half of the league as their history demands, while followers of Brighton and Huddersfield will be hoping to survive in their first Premier league campaign.
Since 1992, 74 teams have achieved promotion to the Premier league (only two teams were promoted in 1994-5 as the league reduced from 22 to 20 teams). Of those, 34 were immediately relegated back to the second tier and 40 survived; a survival rate of 54%.
There has only been one season in which all three promoted teams were immediately relegated again (Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Crystal Palace in 1997-98) while there have been two seasons in which all three clubs have survived (Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers and Fulham in 2001-02 and QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City in 2011-12)
In 22 of the 25 Premier League seasons, exactly one or two promoted sides suffered an immediate return to the second tier. Below, we assess each team’s individual chances of staying up in 2017-18.
Newcastle United:
Magpies boss Rafa Benitez secured an automatic return to the top flight in his first full season at St James’ Park and the general consensus amongst fans is that he is the man to take them to the next level.
Benitez has experience of managing in the Premier League with Liverpool and Chelsea and will not be afraid to spend big money to bring success to the North East club.
They have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, with Christian Atsu the only arrival. They have been linked with a move for Valencia midfielder Enzo Perez and Middlesbrough winger Adama Traore, but no arrivals are thought to be imminent.
Verdict: The winners of the championship are historically most likely to survive, while the tactical nous of Benitez and larger budget than many current premier league teams should surely see them to safety as a minimum.
Brighton and Hove Albion:
Chris Hughton worked wonders to bring premier league football to the AMEX for the first time. Question marks still remain however over his unproven record in the premier league. Having been sacked by Newcastle and Norwich (with Norwich relegated only weeks later) he will surely feel he has a point to prove.
The Seagulls have worked early in attempts to bolster their squad, signing German midfielder Pascal Gross, young Celtic defender Josh Kerr and Australian Goalkeeper Matt Ryan. The club have also been linked with Middlesbrough’s Stewart Downing and Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham as they look to add firepower.
Verdict: Will likely be in a relegation scrap from the off, but a marquee signing and more firepower up front could see them safe.
Huddersfield:
Unsurprisingly, the West Yorkshire club are favourites to come straight down. They arrive in the Premier League a largely unknown entity, with David Wagner’s style of play often compared to Liverpool counterpart Jurgen Klopp.
The Terriers have made one signing so far this transfer window – striker Laurent Lepoitre, while they have agreed a deal with Manchester City to turn Aaron Mooy’s loan into a permanent deal.
David Wagner performed a miracle with the Terriers last season, early signs would suggest some considered transfer business is being conducted but there is no doubt that Premier League survival offers a whole new test to Huddersfield.
Their grit, their determination and their footballing talents will be put to the test, but will survival in the Premier League prove a step too far for Huddersfield Town?
Verdict: Will struggle without a few more signings. Wagner’s inexperience in the Premier League will either be a curse or a blessing, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Written by Sam Hanys.
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