Manchester United’s concerning “top-six” statistic which could prevent a true title challenge
Manchester City v Manchester United, ManU - Premier League - Etihad Stadium Manchester United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer prior to kick-off during the Premier League match at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Picture date: Sunday March 7, 2021. EDITORIAL USE ONLY No use with unauthorised audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or live services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xDavexThompsonx 58482425
Manchester United have quite a perplexing record against their traditional ‘big six’ rivals. Ignoring Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s time as caretaker manager, where players may have been influenced by the ‘new manager bounce’, United’s record ranks third out of the top-six teams since the start of the 2019/20 season.
Only Liverpool’s record-breaking form last season and Manchester City’s similar record-breaking win-streak this season have bettered them over this time. Although, they have played one more ‘big six’ fixture than both Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool this season.
After a rocky start to the season that included losses to Arsenal, who were at their lowest, and Tottenham, Solskjaer seems to have at least quelled the losing. United have lost just four times in a big six fixture from the 18 they have played since the start of last season and are undefeated in their last five.
They also have the best defensive record over these fixtures, conceding less than any other big six team in a relevant fixture. So why are they still so far off Manchester City in first?
Especially after Bruno Fernandes’ arrival from Sporting Lisbon, Solksjaer has finally settled on a formation, a group of players and a style of play. Accordingly, the club has produced some entertaining football this season, even setting records like in their 9-0 win against Southampton.
Yet, contrary to the popular ‘stick to your guns’ manifesto in sport, Solskjaer orders his troops differently against big six sides. For context, only once have they exceeded their season average of possession (55.6%) against a big six side (in matchweek 21’s draw to Arsenal; 57%). Only on one occasion have they had more touches in their attacking third than their big six opposition. Having restricted only Chelsea, in their 0-0 draw earlier this month, to less touches in United’s defensive third than the seasonal average of their opposition.
These figures present a case for a worrying trend in their style of play. One that hopefully will resolve as Solskjaer, and the players, gain confidence in themselves and each other. For now, Manchester City’s superior record against big six (17 points accrued) opposition this season accounts for the difference between themselves and United in second (8 points, including two points dropped in a draw against City).
Speaking positively, it is at least a foundation for the club to build on for next season. This one is effectively decided. But the players, the manager and those higher up seemingly have a belief that this problem, amongst others, will be rectified in due time.