Three season wonder Harry Kane continues to prove doubters wrong as he refuses to be burdened by the growing expectation put upon him by England and Spurs supporters alike.
The 23-year-old finished the club season with seven goals in Tottenham’s last two games and bagged his sixth international goal on Saturday with the late equaliser against Scotland.
Many people are tipping Kane to be the one to beat Alan Shearer’s long standing record of 260 Premier league goals, but how similar are they and how likely is it in reality?
Shearer’s goals came in 441 games, over 14 seasons between Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United at an average rate of 0.59 goals per game.
Harry Kane to date has played 116 top flight matches; 3 for Norwich during a loan spell and the rest for Tottenham Hotspur, scoring 78 at a current rate of 0.67 goals per game.
If Kane was to continue at this rate for the rest of his career, he would need to play another 272 games. If he could play all 38 games in every season that would only take him just over seven years.
Kane’s injury record suggests this is far from likely, but he can take comfort in the fact that many of Shearer’s later years were blighted by injury, leaving him with an average of only 30 games played per season including three 42-game campaigns.
After his second serious injury in 1997 preseason with Newcastle, Shearer had to adapt his game to prolong his career, blighting Premier League defences as a robust target man rather than the complete all round striker he was in his younger days.
Kane has the ability to do both and complements of his work rate from many of the coaches he has worked with suggest he is willing to put the time in to adapt his game accordingly.
Shearer had the advantage of playing in the final three 42-game seasons, but was also disadvantaged in that his first three full top flight seasons came before the Premier League started in 1992. Had those goals counted, his tally would stand at 283.
The stats all tell the same story, Kane can break Shearer’s record. By Kane’s current age, Shearer had only scored 47, 31 less than Kane has. Other factors must be taken into consideration; will Tottenham continue to play to the standard of the last two years? Will Kane stay injury free?
Only time will tell. 260 goals was a huge achievement but if you asked me right now, I would say yes: Harry Kane is well and truly in with a chance of usurping Alan Shearer’s long-standing record.
Written by Sam Hanys.
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