Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Date: 23/11/2019
K/O: 15:00
Venue: Selhurst Park
Referee: Kevin Friend
Only few remain of the squad that capitulated at Selhurst Park not many years ago, but for those that have endured – the emotion will still be as raw as it was on that dreary May night in 2014 as Liverpool travel to Crystal Palace, once again, with the title seemingly theirs to lose.
Over the last four fixtures, Liverpool have come away flush with all 12 possible points, but it has been bereft of controversy and heartbreak. There have been three goals past the 90th minute and half of the 12 goals have come beyond the 72nd minute of play.
Liverpool’s 4-3 win at Anfield was the most spectacular and was not the parting fixture gracious Palace servant, Julian Speroni, would have hoped for as Liverpool’s victory was shadowed by three rather… fortuitous goals.
The 0-2 win at this week’s venue, Selhurst Park, was home to two rather suspect falls from two-time golden boot winner, Mohamed Salah, leading to a penalty and an Aaron Wan-Bissaka red card.
However, Liverpool will travel full of confidence with a marked blemish on their results list since the loss on penalties in the FA Community Shield, in August, to last week’s losers, Manchester City. Having collected 11 of a possible 12 points, Liverpool’s record is truly bipolar in contrast to their hosts who have won a mere one of 12 over their last four fixtures, respectively.
Palace’s league rank has doubled from 6th to 12th having faced four of the teams above them at the start of a ghastly five game-week stretch. They now face the final of the five teams that were above them at the start of Gameweek nine, with Liverpool looking to entrench themselves deeper into the heights atop of the table.
A much-fathomed metric – due to its inability to factor in the ‘humanity’ of a situation – the expected goal (xG) parameter provides an understanding into the quality and expected conversion rate of a side’s chances. It hasn’t flattered Roy Hodgson’s Palace side in the slightest. Palace have the third-worst xG of any Premier League side this season with 11.97, converting 10 in total.
At a ground that was once their castle, Palace’s walls have been battered down in recent seasons and the xG statistic has been a battering ram to their doors – they have the lowest xG of any side over their opening six home games this season.
One could easily pin the blame on misfiring forwards – which would be fair – but negative defensive tactics have been their pitfall so far this season.
Despite flaunting some of the best-attacking talent outside the ‘top six’ (which may need to be reconfigured at the end of the season), Palace set up with a system that plays with – at times – six defenders with the wide-midfielders/wingers dropping back to help out.
However, Jürgen Klopp’s reluctance to field midfielders with the ability to open up defences has seen Liverpool – throughout all their current success – struggle at times this season. Leicester City, Manchester United and Sheffield United all came agonisingly close to earning (more, in Manchester’s case) points against Liverpool, but they all succumbed to the relentless pursuit exhibited by Klopp’s side. All three teams set up to thwart Liverpool attacks by flooding their defensive third and on all three occasions, Liverpool were down on their seasonal averages in both shots and shots on target.
It will, thus, be interesting to see how they fare against a particularly stingy Palace side who set up potentially even more defensively than all of the aforementioned teams. Aside from a 4-0 humbling at the hands of Tottenham, Palace have conceded just 12 goals from 11 games which is encouraging considering their lack of re-investment following the departure of Wan-Bissaka and the constant injuries that have plagued defensive wall, Mamadou Sakho.
The Merseyside club create their opportunities majorly from the flanks. With the two wingers – Sadio Mané and Salah – the centre of all attention in attack. These two combine with their full-back partners, Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold, respectively, to create, arguably, two of the best full-back/winger combinations in world football.
This makes Liverpool’s struggles to break down defences all the more interesting this weekend, considering that Salah and Robertson have been confirmed absentees from this weekend’s fixture.
\With no true position-sake, first-team replacement fit at the club for either of the pair, it does make things a little more intriguing. Last time these two sides met, Alexander-Arnold was absent and James Milner had to fill in at right-back and it’s fair to say the 17-season veteran had a torrid time. He was arguably at fault for Palace’s first goal in Liverpool’s narrow 4-3 win over the Eagles in January this year and later conceded two fouls and earned himself a red card, unable to tame the pace of Wilfried Zaha.
With Salah – who starts on the opposite flank to Robertson – also unavailable now, this significantly weakens Liverpool’s offensive onslaught from both wings. Thus, it will be interesting whether Klopp alters his midfield line-up to compensate for offensive frailties by including a more attack-capable midfielder such as Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Or if Klopp favours a more defensive alteration to safe-guard Milner – the most likely Robertson replacement – at left-back?
Team News
Crystal Palace
Roy Hodgson has ‘boasted’ previously of Palace’s near-full bill of health after a lengthy run of persistent injuries. However, a first-half groin injury to Joel Ward against Chelsea may change this.
The club is generally tight-lipped about all injuries – as are the majority of elite football clubs in the modern era – and have not revealed any updates to Ward’s fitness. Martin Kelly is the most likely replacement, having filled in several times at right-back over the years for various managers.
Liverpool
As previously mentioned, both Salah and Robertson will be unavailable this weekend.
Jordan Henderson was absent from England’s second international fixture of the two-week break due to illness but, currently, it doesn’t seem serious enough to keep the club captain from taking the field this weekend.
Joe Gomez, himself, suffered a knock in the midst of his international duties with England, but if he is required, it shouldn’t keep him out of the squad against Palace.
Both Joël Matip and Xherdan Shaqiri are still unavailable as they tend to knee and calf injuries, respectively.
Predicted Starting XIs
Crystal Palace (4-5-1): Guaita; Kelly, Tomkins, Cahill, van Aanholt; Townsend, McArthur, Milivojevic, Kouyaté, Zaha; Ayew
Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Lovren, van Dijk, Milner; Henderson, Fabinho, Wijnaldum; Origi, Firmino, Mané
Score Prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool
A historically tight encounter presents no differently this weekend following an international break that would have definitely favoured the hosts for this fixture, downregulating any momentum Liverpool had following a significant victory against Manchester City last weekend. Liverpool should prove winners based purely on quality alone here, but Vincenté Guaita is no fool in goal and may prove hard to beat.
