Everton vs Fulham
Date: 14/02/2021
K/O: 19:00
Venue: Goodison Park
Referee: Andy Madley
TV: BT Sport
Two attack-centric teams will take the stage at Goodison Park setting up, what should be, an enticing encounter when Fulham travel to Everton.
A thrilling come-from-behind draw preceded against Manchester United an unprecedented 5-4 victory against Tottenham midweek, in the FA Cup, for Everton. A total of 15 goals in their last two competitive games makes for incredible viewing – especially as a neutral – but possibly many palpitations for Everton fans. Against Fulham, although it may not seem this way, we could be expecting another such scoreline.
If not for faulty finishing, Fulham would have collected all three points last gameweek against this season’s surprise packet, West Ham United. The Cottagers produced an expected goal tally of 1.4, which was not their highest of the season – with that being 1.8 in the win over Leicester City and the exhilarating 3-4 loss to Leeds United earlier this season.
However, it was the work they did leading up to the shots that was impressive. A total of 33 shot-creating actions (which are the two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, dribbles, and drawing fouls) was, by far, Fulham’s the most productive of the season according to fbref.com’s data.
This performance came against a side that, characteristically this season, have been quite compact and difficult to navigate through. Yet it was Fulham’s movement and work during open play that troubled the Hammers distinctly. They completed the most key passes (i.e. passes directly leading to a shot) in any of their games this season (14) and their equal most passes into the 18-yard-box (14).
It seems Scott Parker’s men have finally acclimated to the Premier League, or at least their creativity has. But, it seems like a case of too little too late unless they can complete a most miraculous survival after collecting 15 points from just 22 games.
Over their previous three games, which have included should-have-won draws against West Brom and West Ham and a tough loss to Leicester City, there has been a great improvement both offensively and defensively. They have conceded 2.5 expected goals in this stretch – their lowest three-game running total this season. Also, their highest combined total of shot-creating actions, key passes and expected assists respectively have been recorded over this same period.
It seems that finishing their good work, again, both offensively and defensively has troubled them. This has been a constant pattern this season. Last season’s top scorer in the Championship, Alexandr Mitrovic, hasn’t scored since his brace against Leeds United in the aforementioned thriller in gameweek two. While a completely different back five (including the goalkeeper) have struggled to cohere to optimise Parker’s defensive approach.
In Everton, Fulham will face a side that has experienced similar problems at times this season and since Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment in December 2019. Inconsistency and individual mistakes have plagued the side, especially in the defensive set-up. This has led, most significantly, to the omission and rotation of, until most recently, England’s number one goalkeeper Jordan Pickford. But, with a little bit of luck – and pristine finishing – Everton have managed to outperform their expected goal totals and their errors.
Their expected goals for (26.0) subtracting their expected goals against (26.6) has resulted in a negative expected goal difference (-0.5; due to rounding) ranking them 11th in the league. This means that, yes, the Toffees have been on the fortunate side of happenings this season as they sit much further up the table than what is expected.
With four players overperforming their non-penalty expected goal by more than 1.0 this has contributed significantly to their overperformance. For context, this season’s chief overperformers, Manchester United, have six players in this category.
So… what does this all mean for this fixture? Simply, goals and a whole lot of entertaining gameplay. Or so statistics and history tell us. Defensively, both teams seem to have settled for the time being but can have their blips, for sure. While offensively, it is clear that the two sides are coming into their stride.
Will both coaches look to lock up defensively, especially with Ancelotti without his star-finisher Dominic Calvert-Lewin? Or will both coaches go at each other’s throats, play to their strengths and hope their sides can outscore the other? Fulham, at this point, have nothing to lose. Meanwhile, Everton have a whole lot to gain from a win. So, feasibly, it seems we might see each team let loose to set up an entertaining fixture.
Team News
Everton
As previously mentioned, Calvert-Lewin has been ruled out for this fixture by Ancelotti. The Englishman has his eyes set on a return to this season’s toughest test, Manchester City, on Wednesday. This could mean a full debut is due for the timely winter signing of Joshua King. Returning to the Premier League, this presents as a momentous opportunity for the sought-after striker to impress his new employers.
Allan and Fabian Delph will hope to return within the next week but, as is the case with Calvert-Lewin, will not be fit for the match against Fulham at the very least. An ‘easier’, yet dangerous, fixture against the 18th-placed side may tempt Ancelotti to rest some players before the aforementioned midweek match against Man City.
Fulham
No new injury news for the visitors this week. Tom Cairney and Terence Kongolo remain absent and no return date has been set for either of the pair.
Predicted Starting XIs
Everton (4-3-1-2): Olsen; Godfrey, Mina, Keane, Digne; Doucouré, Davies, Gomes; Sigurðsson; King, Richarlison
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Areola; Tete, Andersen, Adarabioyo, Robinson; Anguissa, Reed; Decordova-Reid, Loftus-Cheek, Lookman; Maja
Score Prediction: Everton 3–1 Fulham
The weather looks cloudy with a chance of goals, or at least shot-creating actions (to put it boringly). Both sides prioritise attack over defence, and that is the way us fans like it – although not supporters of the respective clubs. Fulham may pull a few surprise results over the remainder of the season – not enough to earn their survival, but enough to annoy some clubs chasing European status for next season. Could it start against Everton?
