Roy Hodgson has guided Crystal Palace to ninth place in the Premier League table, an astonishing feat considering over the summer the South London side made a profit of £43.34m. That was primarily thanks to the sale of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, but in his departure, Martin Kelly has stepped up to deputise expertly. To fill an attacking void they brought in Jordan Ayew, who has so far scoring four Premier League goals, making hi the sides top scorer. James McCarthy was acquired for less than £3m, and Gary Cahill has been a revelation since arriving for free.
In spite of the very safe atmosphere surrounding the club, Crystal Palaces’ good fortunes cannot last forever. One of their primary concerns is that the Eagles have outperformed their expected points total by 7.38 points, only Newcastle and Liverpool have done so by a greater margin. If Hodgson had guided Palace to the 15.62 points expected from them this season, they would be sitting seven places lower in 16th, looking anxiously at the relegation zone below them.
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace are massively outperforming their expected goals conceded, mostly thanks to some exceptional displays from Vicente Guaita. The Spanish stopper is being only Kasper Schmeichel with regards to Premier League clean sheets this season, and it has reflected in the Eagles conceding nine goals fewer than they would have expected too. No other team in the English top-flight has outperformed their expected goals conceded by such a large margin and eventually Palace may begin to become leakier if they keep giving away high-value chances.
Crystal Palace’s expected goals scored is the lowest total in the division and precisely the number they have netted, 15. Even bottom side Watford have an expected goals scored of 19 despite having only put nine in the back of the net. Essentially, if Hodgson’s side continues to ride their luck at this rate, they could yet be sucked into the relegation battle. The Eagles are relying on their defence and goalkeeper to keep overperforming while barely threatening up top. They may currently sit ninth, but Hodgson’s good fortunes will not last forever.
