FPL: Pep’s rotation roulette. Who’s getting benched in GW10?

Is there anything more frustrating for FPL managers than to see a player they have selected sit on the bench and watch with the rest of us?

But with Premier League clubs building big squads to cope with a heavy fixture list, rotation poses one of the biggest risks for FPL managers in picking their teams.

Take GW9 for example, 390,586 managers transferred in Raheem Sterling, only to have him benched and score no points. 283,361 managers bought in City’s Brazilian forward Gabriel Jesus who came off the bench to score just one point. That’s 673,947 very angry FPL managers with one point from two expensive City players. 

So how do we work out Peps rotation policy and which City players should we own? 

That’s a difficult one to answer. Many of us were keeping an eye on the team news for Man City’s Carabao Cup tie against Wolves, hoping Pep would rest players and give us a clue as to what Man City’s line up vs West Brom at the weekend might be. However, Pep served up a huge shock and played Aguero and Jesus from the start, and to the dismay of FPL managers; Aguero played 120 minutes and Jesus played 82. Now the one thought in the minds of managers will now be whether or not Aguero is going to be rested this coming GW.

Lets take a look at how Pep Guardiola has used Aguero and Jesus so far this season:

So far this season, Pep has started Aguero and Jesus together four times in the PL and two in the Champions League, and collectively (so far this season in all competitions) Aguero has played 808 mins of football and scored 59 FPL points in only 7 games and Jesus 898 mins, 46 FPL points in 8 games.

It is the starts that are key for players, and for managers picking those players. There is always a sigh of relief when we see certain names on the team sheet because we know they will get points-especially if you are Aguero and Jesus. However, Sherlock himself might not be able to deduce who Pep is going to pick each GW.

Brighton PL:

Both start.

Aguero: 83 mins, 2 goals.

Jesus: 78 mins.

Everton PL:

Both start.

Aguero: 90 mins.

Jesus: 45 mins.

Bournemouth PL:

Jesus starts, Aguero benched.

Aguero: 24 mins.

Jesus: 82 mins, 1 goal.

Liverpool PL:

Both start.

Aguero: 90 mins, 1 goal.

Jesus: 57 mins, 2 goals.

Feyenoord CL:

Both start.

Aguero: 60 mins, 1 goal.

Jesus: 90 mins, 1 goal.

Watford PL:

Both start.

Aguero: 90 mins, 3 goals.

Jesus: 65 mins, 1 goal.

West Brom EFL cup: 

Aguero: not in squad (rested) 

Jesus: 90 mins.

Crystal Palace PL:

Aguero: 90 mins, 1 goal.

Jesus: On bench did not play.

Shakhtar CL:

Both start.

Aguero: 85 mins.

Jesus: 54 mins.

Chelsea PL:

Aguero: injured not in squad.

Jesus: 90 mins.

Stoke PL:

Aguero: injured not in squad.

Jesus: 63 mins, 2 goals.

Napoli CL:

Aguero: injured not in squad.

Jesus: 87 mins, 2 goals.

Burnley PL:

Aguero: 76 mins, 1 goal.

Jesus: 14 mins.

Wolves EFL cup:

Both start.

Aguero: 120 mins.

Jesus: 83 mins.

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PL: Premier League

EFL: Carabao Cup

CL Champions League

One of the clear risks of picking players from a team whose manager frequently rotates the squad is the loss of points; one missing name from the team selection sheet could be the end of a promising GW.

This problem becomes greater still if you have had to transfer players in and take a hit of at least -4points, something which I know FPL managers have had to do. Taking a hit can prove to be successful, but with a manager who rotates like Pep; there does come a nervous wait for the team news.

Let’s not even get started on managers who do not rotate, but just sell you misinformation in their press conferences… This means if you’re selecting players who are at risk of being rotated a strong option on the bench becomes a necessary. 

Another risk is also the constant danger of price changes. The more Pep rotates and the less game time certain players get, will eventually be reflected in the price-either making you money if you were fortunate enough to transfer in a player at their lower price, or cost you if you need to transfer them out for less than you paid; and still not enough for who you want to bring in.

I am not trying to convince you against Pep’s men, but he is possibly one of the most frustrating managers in the PL-especially for FPL managers. But he is looking like the right man for the job this season, Man City are unbeaten in 9 PL matches and have scored 32 goals, conceding only 4.

Essentially, you do want Manchester City players in your FPL team because they have scored so many points this season, that it would be wrong to overlook them based on Pep’s rotation-the rewards are by far outweighing the risks. In my opinion there are 3 players who will start most games and they are Fernandinho, David Silva and De Bruyne. They have started most games together, and De Bruyne, in particular, is the mastermind behind a lot of those 32 goals scored.

This leaves five players to fit in three attacking options: Aguero, Jesus, Sane, Sterling and Bernard Silva-which means that these are likely to be the players who will be rotated. But here’s even more bad news-it will not be long before Gundogan might be another name to add to that rotation list too. If anyone figures out Pep’s rotation policy, can they let me know?

Written by @Barrick88