Steve Bruce has been getting a tune out of Newcastle United which few people were expecting at the start of the season, as they were some journalists’ hot favourites to prop up the Premier League table. Currently, they have been proving the doubters wrong, sitting comfortably above the scrap in 11th place, but the pleasant mid-table bubble the Magpies find themselves in could be about to burst.
The reason behind it is simple, while Bruce has done fantastically so far, Newcastle are massively outperforming their expected points, by the second-largest margin in the division. Thus far the North East club have acquired 22 points from their opening 17 games, but according to an expected points model, that is 9.53 more than they have deserved this term. In other words, the chances they have created are unsustainably poor, and typically the Magpies would have only expected to have collected 12.47 points at this stage, which would put them 18th in the Premier League.
While there is a chance the model is incorrect, it is considerably more likely to be accurate as so far this campaign Newcastle’s forwards have found the back of the net a meagre two times in the Premier League. The Magpies have been incredibly over-reliant on their defenders contributing, who have scored nine times in total. Top scorer Jonjo Shelvey is set to possibly double his record tally for Newcastle in a Premier League campaign but were he to sustain an injury, or if the defenders began to misfire, the Magpies would come crashing down to earth rapidly.
Another concern should be that Bruce’s side are also outperforming their expected goals conceded quite substantially. While they have currently been keeping teams at bay, such as Martin Dubravka’s man of the match performance against Sheffield United, that should not be expected to continue.
In short, Newcastle have been conceding high-value chances to the opposition who have failed to take them so far, while scoring opportunities they would have been expected to miss. It may be impressive at the moment, but that is a precarious game to play. Everything may appear somewhat jovial on Tyneside, but there is a strong chance that positive mood could turn rapidly if results revert to the mean.
