Now we have just a third of the Premier League season left to go, it’s a good idea to have a glance at the bottom of the table and weigh up the chances that each team has of staying in the top division for another season.
We certainly have a close one this year – six teams from 13th place to 18th place are separated by just three points, and we could end up with a few of these teams finishing below 40 points come the end of the season. Barring a complete turnaround in the form of the two teams propping up the table, it looks like there may only be room for one more team to be sent down to the Championship which, probability-wise, is a comforting thing for those in the battle as it stands. Let’s take a quick look at the betting for relegation courtesy of Sky Bet:
Huddersfield – no odds
Fulham – 1/9
Cardiff – 4/5
Burnley – 7/2
Southampton – 9/2
Newcastle – 5/1
Brighton – 8/1
Crystal Palace – 16/1
Still, with 36 points left to play for, you could say that the whole bottom half of the table are involved in the relegation battle. In this article, we’ll see who looks the most likely to face the drop and who has what it takes to stay in the Premier League for another year. We’ll go from the bottom upwards, beginning with the Terriers.
Huddersfield Town – 11 points
The West Yorkshire outfit defied the odds last season under recently departed manager David Wagner. Although the fans will be thankful to the German for steering the Terriers to the top division and keeping them there, the sacking was ultimately needed as the team have picked up just one point in 13 matches.
Now we are in the final stages of the season, there is surely no chance of survival for the Terriers for the second year in a row, but newly appointed manager Jan Siewart will be determined to try and get some good results for his team, especially now that the nightmare run of tricky fixtures is behind them.
With some more appealing looking matches on the way for Huddersfield, and after a home tie against Arsenal in which they made a pretty good account of themselves, there is a glimmer of hope for Siewart and his men, but damage limitation is the realistic objective at this stage. Just one more point is needed to better Derby’s worst-ever Premier League points tally, so fans should be safe in the knowledge that their team most likely won’t be in the record books for the wrong reasons.
Fulham – 17 points
Although Fulham are six points above Huddersfield in 19th position, their situation isn’t much less bleak than the Terriers’, with the Cottagers straying seven points from safety as things stand. Similar to Huddersfield, Fulham have also recruited a new man on the touchline this season in former Premier League winning manager Claudio Ranieri; yet the effect this has had seems to be minimal as far as results go, despite everyone’s high expectations of the Italian.
Their defensive performances have been far from convincing from the beginning of the campaign and, although many believed that their attacking prowess may see them through safely into another season in the Premier League, it is looking increasingly unlikely that this is the case.
With players like Mitrovic and Schurrle in their attack many people thought that the team would be freely scoring all season, but in actual fact, this has not been the case – the Cottagers have netted an average of around one goal per game, the fourth worst record in the league. Would it be a reasonable decision to sack their manager for the second time this season? Their survival in the Premier League may depend on it.
Southampton – 24 points
Now we get to the really tight portion of the table. Southampton sit on the surface of the relegation zone but are just three points from 13th place. Again, like the other two teams currently occupying the red zone, Southampton have undergone a managerial change, but this time it appears to have made a positive impact on the team’s performances.
Although results under Ralph Hasenhuttl have been somewhat inconsistent of late, the club seems to be in a much more positive position than they were when Mark Hughes was in charge. The Saints continue to pick up points and should rise up the table in the coming weeks, as long as their form does not take a drastic downfall.
As a result of this, bookmakers have regarded Southampton as one of the likelier contenders to survive. Although they lost their most recent match – a crucial six-pointer against relegation rivals Cardiff – the South Coast outfit created enough opportunities to almost get something out of the game, as they have for much of 2019’s matches. It seems pretty likely that Southampton will go on to play their eighth season in a row in the top division.
Cardiff City – 25 points
Cardiff were one of the favourites to face relegation at the start of the season and perhaps weren’t handed the belief that they deserved after finishing second in the Championship and gaining automatic promotion to the Premier League.
The Bluebirds are currently hovering one point just above the relegation zone in seventeenth, mostly thanks to a handful of wins they’ve accumulated over the course of the season – including the two wins on the bounce they have recently achieved. Despite being heavily criticised this year, Neil Warnock has done a fine job in giving Cardiff a real hold in the relegation battle.
Their recent away win against relegation rivals Southampton could be crucial in lifting the team’s spirits with Emiliano Sala’s tragic death still fresh in the memory. Not only this, away wins have been a lot more sparse this season – the three points taken from the South Coast being only their second away victory of the campaign. Therefore, Warnock will hope the squad can springboard off of this early February form and continue raking in points, with their next challenges being Watford and Everton.
There are still many who believe that Cardiff won’t be able to hold themselves above the red zone for the remaining 12 matches. The wins they have achieved have been by fine margins, and the Bluebirds will need a huge amount of grit if they want to find themselves in the Premier League next season.
Newcastle United – 25 points
For a second consecutive season, Rafael Benitez seems to be keeping Newcastle afloat despite a lack of financial aid from the chairman, making him one of the most valuable assets at the club. Having said this, the Magpies have gained a record addition in the recent January transfer window – Miguel Almiron from Atlanta United.
On top of this, Mike Ashley has started to show slightly more interest in his club’s progress, with the owner being sighted at considerably more matches this side of the season. Granted, this should not be commended as a huge accomplishment for Ashley, but it does indicate promising times for the passionate Newcastle fans, most of whom are in no doubt that their manager Benitez is the best man for the job, but just needs a bit more support from the board.
It’s clear that Newcastle have a strong team full of individual talent and a manager who knows how to deploy the best system. As a result, the Magpies are tipped to end up well clear of relegation by the end of the season. Their fixture list may also be a factor in these odds, with only four of the current top ten left to play, including only two of the top six. If Newcastle can impose some superiority in the remaining games, they may be the most likely of the relegation battlers to be safe.
Burnley – 27 points
Sean Dyche is the fourth longest-serving manager in the top four divisions of England and has overseen Burnley be relegated once before. But the Englishman managed to get his team promoted straight back into the Premier League, where they have stayed ever since. The Clarets were just one match away from featuring in the Europa League proper, but now face a fierce relegation battle with some tough fixtures on the horizon.
Burnley are in red-hot league form at the moment – unbeaten in seven matches – and may need to continue with this momentum for their upcoming matches. They are one of three teams currently sitting on 27 points but may need to pick up some extra results in the next few matches to give themselves a cushion before a very tricky end of the season.
Dyche has such a great connection with his players that it’s hard to see him leaving the club any time soon, even if Burnley do get relegated. The Clarets have had a much better second half of the season than the first and will need to keep their heads in gear to stop themselves from dropping into the danger zone.
Brighton and Hove Albion – 27 points
Chris Hughton is another long-serving manager in the Premier League who has done exceptionally well to keep his team in the Premier League since their promotion two years ago. Brighton haven’t been quite so impressive in their recent matches, not winning in the league in 2019, and also have some difficult looking games coming up on top of their participation in the FA Cup.
The frustrating thing for the fans is that in their most recent league games the Seagulls have not been able to pick up three points, despite being the most attacking side. For example, when they faced Watford earlier in the month, Brighton practically did everything except put the ball in the net (Ben Foster may have had a thing or two to do with this).
But Brighton have the look of a pretty stable football club at present. They don’t score that many goals but don’t concede a great deal either. It’s just unfortunate that they can’t quite escape this current run of poor fun, no matter how hard they try. If their luck doesn’t turn soon, they are definitely candidates to face the drop.
Crystal Palace – 27 points
It seems there is just one thing stopping Crystal Palace from potentially being in the top half of the table and that’s that they can’t find the net often enough. Palace have been the sixth most frequent shooters in the Premier League, and have hit the post 14 times – the same number of times as Manchester City.
Although he had a stellar first few minutes in his debut against West Ham, Batshuayi looked a little lethargic against Doncaster in the FA Cup. The Belgian has still got plenty of time to show his worth in the upcoming games and his form could be crucial for Palace’s season.
But even if they don’t manage to ripple the net as much as they may want to, Roy Hodgson’s side have defended well enough to earn themselves a reasonably healthy goal difference of -7 with a pretty manageable fixture list ahead of them. With some extra bolstering in the attack, Crystal Palace look a lot safer than the other teams on the same number of points as them and could reach mid-table by the end of the season.
