West Ham United vs Leeds United
Date: 08/03/2021
K/O: 20:00
Venue: London Stadium
Referee: Mike Dean
TV: Sky Sports Premier League/Main Event
A chance to finish the round in fourth presents itself to West Ham if they can beat a Leeds United side chasing an unlikely top 10 berth at the London Stadium.
Leeds fell to Aston Villa last week quite begrudgingly. It was an evenly contested game that was, as would have been quite predictable preceding the game, filled with end-to-end football.
Meanwhile, West Ham did not flinch at the sight of a 20-game winning streak Manchester City side. In fact, in terms of expected goals (xG), the Hammers were quite unfortunate not to come away with the win having triumphed 1.6 for to 0.6 against. This represented the first time that City had ‘lost’ to a side on xG, since their draw at Leeds in match week four, where Leeds accrued 1.7 to City’s 1.5 xG according to fbref.com.
In a season where the traditionally successful teams have struggled for consistency, West Ham have more than jumped in to fill the void and have made it their very own. After a string of good performances mid-season, a Champions League tilt was dreamily theorised by fans, but it is currently a very realistic possibility.
The sheer dynamicity of their play makes it difficult to nullify. In Michail Antonio, they have a bull, the size of Adama Traoré, with the pace to beat any centre-back and the finishing ability that has him matched with the very best in the league for goals per 90 and goal conversion.
Adding to the attack, Tomáš Souček’s runs from deep make him hard to track and have resulted in him being the club’s leading goal scorer this season. With Antonio busying two centre-backs, Souček is free to exploit the blind-spot of the opposition’s defensive midfielder. Combined with the constant rotation of Pablo Fornals and Jesse Lingard between the left-wing and behind the striker, it creates a unique and equally discombobulating dynamic.
A look at Lingard’s heatmap since his arrival at West Ham exists to confuse. He is often listed as a centrally-starting player yet most of his movement comes on the wings from whence he runs in centrally to hang off Antonio or run onto a through ball. So, suddenly, opposing defences have to deal with the already physically daunting task of Antonio but also the erratic, yet organised, runs from Lingard, Soucek and the number 10 – predominantly Pablo Fornals recently – all in the central area of the Hammers’ attack. It is obviously overwhelming.
This is all without the mention of their right-winger, who naturally holds his width and the two full-backs who can also contribute to the attack. In the meantime, they have not compromised themselves defensively. Since the turn of the year, only two sides have conceded an expected goal against, per 90 minutes, less than West Ham (8.73 over 10 games) and only Man City have won more points.
David Moyes, after a well-documented stumble at Manchester United, has reminded us of his managerial prowess here in his second stint at West Ham. Leeds United will not make for easy opponents, however, despite facing their own troubles this season. Their defence has often been a cause for concern but they have managed to make do without a host of their personnel.
After returning Ben White to his owners, Brighton & Hove Albion, following a very successful loan season over the 2019/20 campaign, Leeds have seen Robin Koch, Pascal Strujik, Diego Llorente and Liam Cooper absent for significant periods. Despite their inability to field a fully fit backline, they have managed, not to stem the flow, but overmine their deficiencies.
Surviving relegation was always the aim for Marcelo Bielsa in his first season in the Premier League. With 35 points accrued and 13 games remaining, this has been achieved. Whatever else comes is a bonus to the cause and a chance to build for next season. Their high octane football should trouble West Ham, a team that thrives on an organised and structured defence that is not partnered by the most fleet of foot centre-backs.
However Moyes chooses to set up against Leeds, it promises to be enticing. Bielsa’s side will not fail in attempting to reproduce their offensive prowess of the season so far. But Moyes, for someone who seems to have been around forever, still retains the youthful ingenuity to overcome new challenges. Switching between three and four-at-the-back formations while organising the offense to function as has been mentioned gives Moyes the options to triumph in any situation. But will Bielsa-ball prove too fast and too furious at the second time of asking against the Hammers?
Team News
West Ham United
Darren Randolph made his second appearance of the season in goal for West Ham and picked up a hip injury during the loss to Manchester City last weekend; just his luck. His start only came as a result of an elbow injury picked up by Poland international Łukasz Fabiański. Neither has trained with the team this week, but Moyes has mentioned that Randolph has done “some gym work” and his number one choice, Fabiański, is a chance to return either way.
If neither goalkeeper is fit to play, it may mean another appearance for lifelong West Ham fan David Martin, who kept two clean sheets from his five appearances last season. Meanwhile, Angelo Ogbonna, Andriy Yarmolenko and Arthur Masauaku remain injured and unavailable.
Leeds United
Following the loss to Aston Villa, Bielsa mentioned that some injured players may be given the opportunity to play in the under-23s fixture to gain some fitness before Monday night’s fixture against West Ham. Rodrigo started and scored twice while Ian Poveda made his long-awaited return from an ankle injury in a game that also featured centre-back Gaetano Berardi. But there was no sight of Kalvin Philips who has been out for a fortnight now.
Rodrigo’s return seems imminent, but Philips remains questionable. Pascal Strujik was withdrawn early during the loss to Villa and remains questionable for the penultimate game of matchweek 27.
Predicted Starting XIs
West Ham United (4-2-3-1): Martin; Coufal, Dawson, Diop, Cresswell; Rice, Soucek; Bowen, Lingard, Fornals; Antonio
Leeds United (4-1-4-1): Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Cooper, Dallas; Strujik; Costa, Rodrigo, Klich, Raphinha; Bamford
Score Prediction: West Ham United 2–1 Leeds United
Another 2-1 victory for West Ham over Leeds this season is possible. The hosts are on a mission and the visitors are likely to be without their most important player, Kalvin Philips, yet again. Will his return change the outcome? Potentially, such is the impact of Philips on Leeds’ performances, but the Hammers are a well-organised and high-functioning unit and will not be deterred. Nonetheless, it will be tight and it will be entertaining.
Elsewhere, these two impressive Premier League playmakers are set to do battle on Monday night in East London.
